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Right now
Britain’s foreign policy should have one primary objective. To ensure that
Donald Trump follows his predecessors as American President and commits absolutely,
and without equivocation, to the NATO alliance. Considering the implications of
America’s commitment to NATO becoming dubious this is more important than any
other policy priority, including laying the groundwork for post-Brexit free
trade agreements. If you share my view, and I suspect you do, that Trump is an
unprincipled bigot you will agree that this task will be unpleasant. I don’t
envy the politicians and diplomats responsible for the relationship. But the
national security implications of failing, of America’s commitment to NATO
becoming conditional or worse, are so enormous that it has to be tried. This
doesn’t mean we should abandon our values or morals, but it does mean that the
British Government is absolutely right to attempt to gain influence with Donald
Trump and befriend senior figures in his administration.
Since its
formation in 1949 the NATO alliance has been the cornerstone of Britain’s
defence policy. Most significantly it has tied America to the defence of
democratic Europe, with this region and NATO both expanding to the East
following the disintegration of the USSR. However both before and after his
election in November Trump questioned America’s commitment to the alliance,
whilst simultaneously building a warm relationship with its chief foe. This
means that for the first time since NATO’s foundation America’s commitment to
the alliance, and particularly the ‘Article 5’ collective defence provision, is
in question.
In an interview with the New York Times conducted in
July 2016 Trump wouldn’t commit to defend NATO members who hadn’t ‘fulfilled
their obligations to us’. He failed to define what he meant by this, but the
most likely explanation is that he was referring to the target NATO sets its
members to spend 2% of their GDP on defence. Alas at present only four of
NATO’s European members (Britain, Poland, Greece and Estonia) hit this target,
and quite a few members are well below. Trump has also maintained an
uncomfortably close relationship, which clearly includes an element of
admiration, for Russian autocrat Vladamir Putin whilst in January he suggested that NATO might be obsolete.
American
frustration about low European defence spending is both longstanding and
justified. In 2015 over two-thirds of NATO defence spending was
accounted for by the United States, which, adjusted for real GDP, is clearly
disproportionate. As European security seems assured by the United States many
European countries have allowed their militaries to decline, focusing spending
in other areas. The de facto result of this is that American taxpayers are
subsidising generous European social security systems. And Europeans on the
whole haven’t exactly reacted to this situation with gratitude. The most common
European stereotype of America, admittedly at least somewhat vindicated after
Trump’s election, is of an unstable bully rather than our gallant
defender.
As such
Trump, in the manner of a stopped clock being right twice a day, is absolutely
right in demanding that European countries pay more towards their own defence.
But this doesn’t justify America’s commitment to the NATO alliance becoming
questionable, a situation which would be disastrous for Europe’s security and
damaging for Americas. NATO’s Article 5, the mutual aid clause which states
that if one NATO member is attacked all other members must assist, is only
powerful if its implementation remains credible.
Already this
is somewhat dubious. I don’t imagine that anyone seriously believes that
Turkey, for example, would go to war to protect one of the Baltic States. But
as long as America’s commitment is assured this only matters up to a point, and
the alliance remains strong. Without America the whole edifice starts to
crumble. It’s unclear, for example, how many European countries would be
prepared to risk military confrontation with Russia without American
assistance.
If America’s
commitment to NATO becomes questionable it will create two main risks. The
first, obviously, is an increased probability that NATO members could have
their territory violated, possibly leading to conflict. But the bigger risk is
that it would make war between the great powers far more likely. International
stability depends on major powers understanding the likely behaviour of other
great powers. Thus under Obama it was clear that America would not respond
militarily to Russian intervention in non-NATO/EU states, such as Georgia and
Ukraine. However it was also pretty clear that if Russia attacked a NATO
member, most likely one of the Baltic States, America would respond with force.
With Trump
it’s far from clear that anyone, including Trump himself, knows where the red
lines are. This uncertainty increases the chances of a miscalculation, which
could lead to a confrontation between the great powers. Putin may think he can
intervene in Estonia with Trump as President for example, without consequence,
and he’s probably right. But it’s hard to be sure, especially when some of
Trump’s Cabinet, like Secretary of Defence James Mattis, are much more
hardline.
For the
reasons laid out above a conditional American commitment to NATO would
represent a direct threat to the security of Europe, including the United
Kingdom. As such the top foreign policy priority of the British Government, and
I think they recognise this, is to ensure Trump is committed to NATO. This is
why it was so important for Theresa May to meet Trump as soon as possible, and
she claims Trump assured her that he was
committed to NATO. This is also why the British Government can’t cut its ties
with the Trump administration when he pursues unpleasant policies which we
disagree with, such as the ban on travel to America for nationals of seven
Muslim countries. It Europe was militarily stronger, as it ought to be, this
would be a realistic option. But our Government has to deal with the world as
it is, and this means we have to at least try and tie Trump to the NATO
alliance.
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Britain Should Be Ensuring Trump's Commitment to NATO | James Bickerton
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